Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Where Are They Now? - A Final Look at 1911's Top 100

100
photo by Leo Reynolds via Flickr

Over the past ten weeks, we have gone through the Top 100 names from 1911 and where they stood in 2011. The original intent was to see if the "100 Year Rule", or names popular 100 years ago are back to being popular today, was... well, real. After going through the ranks, it has been quite interesting to see what names have come back into the fold after falling away. Now let's look at all 200 names together in one final analysis.

I have divided the names into categories to show their journey over the past 100 years. Names in red are currently falling in popularity; names in green are currently rising; and names in black are holding steady, give or take a few ranks. The names are listed in the order of ranking in 1911.

Steady on Top - Names that never left the Top 100. These are the reliable and constant classics. 

John
William
James
Robert
Joseph
Charles
Thomas
David
Samuel
Anthony
Michael
Andrew
Daniel

Elizabeth

As you can see, Americans love more variety for their girls than for their boys, as there is only one girl name on the list. And I noticed that only four out of the 13 boy names are not Biblical.

*****

"100 Year Rule" Contenders - For the purposes of this study, I define the rule as names that fell out of and then came back into the Top 100 over the past 100 years.

Henry (fell to #146)
Jack (fell to #179)
Benjamin (fell to #155)
Alexander (fell to #233)

Anna (fell to #106)
Lillian (fell to #485)
Evelyn (fell to #289)
Grace (fell to #397)
Emma (fell to #458)
Sarah (fell to #119)
Julia (fell to #142)
Eva (fell to #362)
Katherine (fell to #105)
Ella (fell out of the Top 1000 for 5 years)
Stella (fell out of the Top 1000 for 10 years)
Lucy (fell to #588)
Charlotte (fell to #311)

People may define the rule differently, but according to this study, only 8.5% of the Top 200 (100 boy and 100 girl) names from 1911 meet the "100 Year Rule". However, the rule does not have the be as strict as I define it here. I looked at all the Top 100 names in 1911 and their current rank, even if they are not in the Top 100 anymore, to see if they are on the rise in the very least. Just because they are not in the Top 100 doesn't mean they are not on their way back. In any case, as we will observe more later, girl names are definitely stronger contenders for comebacks than boy names.

An interesting note on the girl names in this category: if the name fell further, it's currently on the rise. Those names that are currently on the decline (Anna, Sarah and Julia) didn't fall past #142 over the past 100 years. Also, all three of those names, and Katherine, would also be considered a Roller Coaster Name, discussed later.

*****

The "It" Names - Names that are currently on the rise after falling from their 1911 ranks. I call them the "It" names because they are coming back (some are coming back faster than others), but aren't considered "too common" yet.

Charlie
Leo
Theodore
Lewis
Leon
Vincent

Alice
Rose
Ruby
Hazel
Josephine
Edith
Lucille
Clara
Esther
Beatrice
Elsie
Pearl
Eleanor
Lillie
Vera
Lena
Mae
Leona
Vivian
Violet
Hattie
Ada
Cora
Genevieve

This is my favorite category of the bunch. To be honest, these names are the reason why I did the study. While they may not have made it back to the "top" in exactly 100 years, they are turning people's heads and making them notice.

*****

Roller Coaster Names - Names that rose and fell and rose (and possibly fell again) over the past 100 years. These names are not tied up in a neat bow in terms of their trends, at least when it comes to their rank. Numbers and percentages might produce less of an up and down motion. These names may also appear in one of the other categories.

Anthony
Michael
Andrew
Leo
Jesse
Leon
Eddie
Vincent
Victor
Edgar
Stephen
Irving
Allen

Anna
Evelyn
Edith
Esther
Sarah
Julia
Eleanor
Katherine
Laura
Mattie
Vera
Kathryn
Carrie
Sylvia
Ellen
Genevieve

I felt it important to include this category because as a person looking for the perfect bell curve, these names were not fitting the bill. As I said above, the ranks may not be an accurate look at the names' trends, but on the other hand, a look at the numbers could produce even more names for this category (like Virginia). Take a look at the numbers for Katherine... now, THAT'S a roller coaster. It makes me wonder, why the ups and downs? Some of these names, like Genevieve, aren't as obvious in their movements, but still made enough waves in their ranks for me to notice. Trends are unpredictable at times, and definitely fascinating to watch.

*****

Down But Not Out - Names that fell out of the Top 100, still in the Top 1000, and are either steady or continuing to fall.

George
Frank
Edward
Walter
Harry
Willie
Albert
Harold
Paul
Arthur
Raymond
Richard
Louis
Ralph
Carl
Howard
Joe
Roy
Ernest
Francis
Donald
Lawrence
Alfred
Kenneth
Eugene
Stanley
Leonard
Sam
Peter
Frederick
Russell
Edwin
Lee
Oscar
Philip
Ray
Jesse
Melvin
Martin
Eddie
Jessie
Victor
Marvin
Edgar
Stephen
Ben
Gerald
Alvin
Harvey
Sidney
Allen
Maurice

Mary
Helen
Margaret
Dorothy
Ruth
Marie
Frances
Catherine
Irene
Annie
Virginia
Martha
Ann
Laura
Lillie
Alma
Anne
Mattie
Jessie
Kathryn
Sylvia
Ellen
Hattie
Rosa
Georgia

The names in this category are either on their way to the category listed below, or could possibly make a turnaround in the coming years and join the "It" names. Hattie just reentered the Top 1000 in 2011... will it continue to climb in 2012? (I hope so.)

*****

The Fallen - Names that have left the Top 1000 since 1911. I have marked where 1911's Top 50 ends to show the difference between the number of top boy names and the number of top girl names that have fallen from the ranks.

Fred
Clarence
Earl
Herbert
Elmer
Herman_____Top 50 in 1911_____
Bernard
Floyd
Chester
Leroy
Clyde
Clifford
Norman
Lester
Milton
Lloyd
Cecil
Morris
Claude
Johnnie
Irving
Homer
Vernon
Gordan
Luther

Mildred (the only one from the Top 10 that has disappeared from the Top 1000)
Florence
Ethel
Edna
Gladys
Louise
Thelma
Gertrude
Bertha
Pauline
Agnes
Bessie
Mabel
Ida
Viola
Myrtle_____Top 50 in 1911_____
Bernice
Minnie
Nellie
Doris
Marion
Marjorie
Willie
Lois
Betty
Jean
Blanche
Carrie
Beulah
Opal
Jennie
Marguerite
Fannie
Mamie
Velma
Lula
Inez
Theresa

Most of these names are probably in the basement for a good while (I don't see Homer or Beulah making a comeback any time soon), but a few could make their way back in the coming years (take a look at Viola).

*****

While the "100 Years Rule" was the original purpose of this research, I have found all of the results fascinating. One of the main trends I noticed was that while the boy names stayed mostly consistent, the girl names are the ones that fell the hardest never to come back, but also are the ones that came back from the dead. There also does not seem to be any connection between a name's location in the Top 100 and whether or not it made a comeback.

What observations have you made? What do you think about the names... do you see any moving up or moving down?

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